Scenariusze przyszłości technologii i rozwoju międzynarodowego 2010.pdf

Scenarios for the Future of Technology

and International Development

This report was produced by

The Rockefeller Foundation

and Global Business Network.

May 2010

Contents

Letter from Judith Rodin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Letter from Peter Schwartz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

WHY SCENARIOS? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

WHY TECHNOLOGY? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

THE FOCAL QUESTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

The Scenario Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Lock Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Clever Together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Hack Attack . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Smart Scramble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Concluding Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Letter from Judith Rodin

President of the Rockefeller Foundation

The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens

resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges — afirming

its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to “promote the well-being” of

humanity. We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on

innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos

and encourage interdisciplinary thinking.

One important — and novel — component of our strategy toolkit is scenario planning,

a process of creating narratives about the future based on factors likely to affect a

particular set of challenges and opportunities. We believe that scenario planning has

great potential for use in philanthropy to identify unique interventions, simulate and

rehearse important decisions that could have profound implications, and highlight

previously undiscovered areas of connection and intersection. Most important,

by providing a methodological structure that helps us focus on what we don’t

know — instead of what we already know — scenario planning allows us to achieve

impact more effectively.

The results of our irst scenario planning exercise demonstrate a provocative and

engaging exploration of the role of technology and the future of globalization,

as you will see in the following pages. This report is crucial reading for anyone

interested in creatively considering the multiple, divergent ways in which our world

could evolve. The sparks of insight inspiring these narratives — along with their

implications for philanthropy as a whole — were generated through the invaluable

collaboration of grantee representatives, external experts, and Rockefeller

Foundation staff. I offer a special thanks to Peter Schwartz, Andrew Blau, and the

entire team at Global Business Network, who have helped guide us through this

stimulating and energizing process.

Leading this effort at the Rockefeller Foundation is our Research Unit, which

analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to

respond to the complex, rapidly changing world around us. This outward-looking

intelligence function adopts a cross-cutting mindset that synthesizes and integrates

knowledge that accelerates our ability to act more quickly and effectively. It has

also helped to shape and build the notion of “pro-poor foresight” that is committed

to applying forward-looking tools and techniques to improve the lives of poor and

vulnerable populations around the world.

I hope this publication makes clear exactly why my colleagues and I are so excited

about the promise of using scenario planning to develop robust strategies and offer a

refreshing viewpoint on the possibilities that lie ahead. We welcome your feedback.

Judith Rodin

President

The Rockefeller Foundation

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