Daryn Lehoux - Observation And Prediction In Ancient Astrology.pdf - D - WMatrixie

D. Lehoux / Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci.

Observation and Prediction in Ancient Astrology

Daryn Lehoux

History of Science and Technology Programme, University of King’s College,

Halifax, NS B3H 2A1, Canada

___________________________________________________

This means that the actual sign observed in making a prediction is

no longer a stellar phenomenon. Instead, the stellar phenomenon

functions as the sign-in-theory, but no longer in practice, of

astrological prediction. The sign-in-practice is now a text, a table,

or an instrument

I . Astrometeorology and related practices in the classical

world

Astrometeorology is the oldest branch of astronomy/astrology in

the Greek tradition. As early as Hesiod (c. 700 B . C .), who is among

the earliest of extant Greek authors, we find:

Introduction

What role does the observation of astronomical phenomena play

in the predictive apparatus of the ancient astronomer/astrologer?

This question will be explored by looking at the astrological uses

of a family of texts and instruments known as parapegmata, and

then comparing them with other kinds of astrological text. By

contextualizing a given day or date in a larger temporal cycle, these

instruments were used for predicting natural phenomena such as

weather, and for regulating agricultural practices. This tradition

finds parallels in several different omen traditions, common

throughout the ancient Mediterranean and Near East, where

different kinds of fortuitous events (including astronomical events

such as eclipses) frequently had ominous significance. By about

the fifth century B . C ., however, astronomy had distinguished itself

from the other omen traditions by developing methods for

predicting even the astronomical events from which its omens

were derived. But the very adoption of these new predictive

methods served to canonize the timing and character of the

astronomical events, which means that the texts and tools of early

astronomy became, to some extent, normative. Now, in making his

predictions, the astronomer/astrologer (in spite of his rhetoric to

the contrary) can be seen to be primarily working from texts and

instruments, rather than from observations in the natural world.

Here we have a seasonal prediction for weather conducive to

navigation, timed according to an astronomical phenomenon.

Other kinds of astronomical seasonal markers turn up in an

agricultural context:

At the rising of the Atlas-born Pleiades,

begin the harvest, and you should plough when

they set. (Op. , 597-8)

Urge the slaves to thresh Demeter’s sacred corn

when strong Orion would first appear. (Op. , 383-4)

1 All translations are mine unless otherwise noted.

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, in press. Page numbers are not final.

Fifty days after the solstice,

at the arrival of the end of the season of weary

heat,

that is the time for mortals to sail. ...

Then are the winds orderly and the sea propitious.

(Op. , 663 f.) 1

D. Lehoux / Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci.

In the absence of a solar calendar, such observations of the annual

risings and settings of the fixed stars allowed the ancient farmer or

sailor to situate the current day in the context of the solar year and

its seasons. When to plough, when to plant, when to prune, when

to harvest, and when it was safest to venture out on the ocean, are

all thus indicated by stellar phases rather than, as we would do it,

according to a calendar. For example, gardeners in my

neighbourhood know not to plant annuals before the Victoria Day

long weekend (on or around the 24 th of May), but we could

equally effectively time this planting using a stellar phase. In the

absence of a calendar as effective at tracking the solar year as the

Gregorian calendar is, the stellar phases would even be the better

choice.

The most well-articulated ancient versions of this kind of

practice can be found in Roman agricultural texts like Vergil’s

Georgics, Varro, (both 1 st c. B . C .) Columella, and Pliny the Elder

(both 1 st c. A . D .). 2 But the core of the tradition had already been

established by the third or second century B . C . in what became the

archetypal tool f o r actually doing astro-meteorology: something

called a parapegma. 3

A parapegma is an instrument for keeping track of temporal

cycles of one sort or another. In an inscriptional parapegma, holes are

drilled in a stone or in a wall, and a peg is moved from one hole to

the next each day (this is the origin of the name parapegma , from

παραπήγνυµι, “to peg beside”). Astronomical, astrological, and/or

astrometeorological information is inscribed beside each hole.

Looking at a parapegma on a particular day, the reader looks for

the peg and reads the accompanying inscription. Thus from day to

day, the parapegma tracks the astronomical, astrological, and/or

astrometeorological cycle. 4 Altogether we have about 60

parapegmata still extant, in various states of preservation ranging

from Ptolemy’s complete and excessively detailed Phaseis, to

fragmentary scraps of graffiti.

Let us look at an example. In 1902, fragments of a second- or

first-century B . C . marble inscriptional parapegma were excavated

in the theatre at Miletus. 5 On them, we see holes (●) for a

moveable peg that was shifted from one hole to the next each day,

and beside most of the holes, some astronomical and

meteorological predictions for that day.

● Capella sets acronychally according to both

Philippus and the Egyptians.

● Capella sets in the evening according to the

Indian Callaneus. ●

● Aquila rises in the evening according to

Εuctemon.

● Arcturus sets in the morning and there is a

change in the weather according to Euctemon.

On this day Aquila rises in the evening also,

according to Philippus. 6

We see here that various sources are cited: Euctemon, Eudoxus,

Philippus (probably Philippus of Opus, the student of Plato), the

Egyptians, and Callaneus the Indian. In other parapegmata we

find attributions to the astronomer Hipparchus of Rhodes (the

most important of Ptolemy’s Greek predecessors), Meton of

Athens and Callippus (both associated with the development of

luni-solar cycles), and even to Democritus, Varro, and Caesar

2 Vergil, Georgica; Columella, Rei rusticæ XI ; Varro, Rerum rusticarum; Pliny,

Naturalis historiæ XVIII .202 f.

3 I am in the process of publishing a book-length treatment of these texts,

including a full catalogue as well as translations of the more obscure

parapegmata. See also Lehoux, 2000; Evans, 1998; Rehm, 1941.

4 On tracking as the primary function of a parapegma, see Lehoux, 2000, p. 7-8.

5 Originally published in Diels and Rehm, 1904; See also Rehm, 1904.

6 My translation here is based on my new edition of the fragments currently

under preparation.

D. Lehoux / Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci.

(probably Julius, although possibly Germanicus). 7 Such a list

begins to give us a sense not only of the wide range of sources

drawn on by this tradition, but also of how widespread it was. I

have already mentioned Hesiod, Vergil, Columella, and Pliny the

Elder in connection with astrometeorology, and without being

exhaustive I could add to this list Ptolemy, Aratus, Cicero, Ovid,

Petronius, Diodorus Siculus, Galen, the Hippocratic Corpus,

Proclus, and Sextus Empiricus. We have here a tradition that

would have been familiar to pretty much anyone in antiquity, from

poets to farmers, and from scholars to sailors.

The basic technology of the parapegmata was adapted to

several different uses in antiquity. In Roman times we begin to see

astrological parapegmata, nicely exemplified by the Thermae Traiani

Parapegma (fig. 1) . 8 This was unearthed as a graffito in a Roman

house near the baths of Trajan. The house itself had been

converted by the Christians into a shrine to Santa Felicita. The

only drawing we h ave of the parapegma was made in the early

nineteenth century, and the parapegma itself seems to have

disappeared or been destroyed some time shortly after that. A

terracotta copy, made either from the original or from the

illustration, has turned up in Würzburg, and a plaster cast of this

copy was found in Rome in the early 1980’s. 9

7 The question of whether the Caesar here refers to Julius or Germanicus is an

open one. The earliest mention in a parapegma is Ptolemy’s Phaseis (2 nd c.

A . D .). This and later parapegmata give no information beyond the name

“Caesar.” Speculation ultimately rests on a judgment as to the weighting of

one of two possibilities: either (a) Julius Caesar, in some kind of connection

with his calendar reform, may have left some material that was later

incorporated into parapegmata under his name (Pliny seems to hint as much

at NH XVIII .211), or (b) Germanicus Caesar’s translation of Aratus (attested

but now lost) may have included (or been related to) new material later

incorporated into the parapegmatic tradition.

On the identities of the other astronomers cited in this section, see

Lehoux, 2000, p. 20-22. For the otherwise unattested Callaneus the Indian,

see Diels and Rehm, 1904, p. 108, n.1; Pingree, 1976, p. 143-4.

8 This particular example dates from the 4 th c. A . D ., but there are other

examples of this type from as early as the 1 st c. A . D . (e.g., the Pompeii Calendar,

published by Della Corte, 1927; see also Degrassi, 1963, vol. XIII .2, p. 305).

Figure reproduced from Degrassi, 1963, vol. XIII.2, p. 308-9.

Figure 1: The Thermae Traiani parapegma

Across the top of the parapegma, we see images of five of the

seven deities of the astrological week, reading from left to right: a

gap (where Saturn should be), then Sol, Luna, Mars, Mercury, a

blank for Jupiter (deliberately effaced?), and Venus, in their

normal astrological order. The numbers from I-XV run vertically

down the left side, and from XVI-XXX down the right. A hole

seems to appear just above and to the right of the hole for XXX,

9 See Manicoli, 1981.

D. Lehoux / Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci.

but this is probably a n artifact of the copyist or else damage to the

instrument. 10 In the middle of the parapegma are the signs of the

zodiac, with two holes drilled per sign. Reading counter-clockwise

from just to the right of the top: Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer,

Leo, Virgo, Libra, Scorpio, Sagittarius, Capricorn, Aquarius, and

Pisces. A small fragment of a bone peg was found in one of the

holes for Gemini. T h ere were three pegs in use on this kind of

parapegma, one to track the days of the week, one to track the

motion of either the sun or the moon (it is unclear which) through

the signs of the zodiac, and one to keep track of the days of the

moon. 11

Inscriptional parapegmata have generally been seen by modern

historians as being the earliest type of astrometeorological

parapegma, although I have elsewhere argued that this thesis

should be treated with caution, as it is underdetermined by

historical evidence. 12 The oldest inscriptional parapegma (the

Ceramicus Parapegma) is not astrometeorological, and the earliest

extant astrometeorological parapegma is literary (the P. Hibeh

Parapegma) . 13

Literary parapegmata work a little differently than the

inscriptional parapegmata we have seen. Where the inscriptions

used pegs and holes for tracking the current astrometeorological

or astrological cycle, textual parapegmata use some kind of

calendar to perform the same function. But Greek calendars are

notoriously unstable and do not line up with the solar year very

well at all from year to year. 14 To get around this, literary

parapegmatists use solar calendars such as the Alexandrian and the

Julian. 15 So in Ptolemy’s Phaseis we see:

[Month of] Thoth

1 st . 14 ½ hours: 16 the star on the tail of Leo rises.

According to Hipparchus the Etesian winds

stop. According to Eudoxus rainy; thunder;

the Etesian winds stop.

2 nd . 14 hours: the star on the tail of Leo rises, and

Spica disappears. According to Hipparchus

10 See Lehoux, 2000. Contrast Erikkson, 1956; Rehm, ‘Parapegma’, RE , col.

1364.

11 The days of the moon are an important astrological indicator of propitious

times for certain kinds of activities, not least of which were agricultural tasks,

as we see in Pliny (NH XVIII.228 and 321) and Vergil (Georg., I.276-286).

Vergil, for example, tells us that the seventeenth day of the moon is

propitious for planting vines, the ninth lucky for fugitives but unlucky for

thieves, and that the fifth day is unlucky for all work. For details, see Lehoux,

2000, p. 148-150.

12 See Lehoux, 2000, p. 217 f.

13 On the Ceramicus parapegma, see Lehoux, 2000, p. 61. The Parapegma was

originally published by Brückner, 1931. The P. Hibeh parapegma was

published by Grenfell and Hunt, 1906, p. 138-157. It dates from c. 300 B.C.

For this date, see Grenfell and Hunt, 1906; Neugebauer, 1975; Spalinger,

1991. That this is the oldest extant astrometeorological parapegma depends

on the rejection of various modern reconstructions of parapegmata. See

Lehoux, 2000, p. 82f., p. 31, and p. 218.

14 See Samuel, 1972; Pritchett and Neugebauer, 1947.

15 Both the Alexandrian and Julian calendars are 365-days long with a leap year

inserted every 4 years. The Julian calendar was inaugurated by Julius Caesar in

45 B . C ., and used the traditional Roman month names, but replaced the old

Quintilis with Julius, and (after A . D . 8) Sextilis with Augustus. The Alexandrian

calendar was the civil calendar of Roman Egypt. It used Egyptian month

names (Thoth, Phaophi, Hathyr, etc.). Each month had 30 days, and there

were five “extra” (epagomenal) days at the end of the year (or six in a leap year).

It was inaugurated in either 26 or 30 B . C . (for the debate around these dates,

see Jones, 1999a, vol. 1, p. 12).

Geminus is the exception to the rule that literary parapegmata all

incorporate calendars, in that he does not use a calendar at all, but instead

uses the sun’s motion through the zodiac as an index of the solar year. See

Lehoux, 2000, p. 89 f.; Toomer, 1974. Contrast those arguments with the

general consensus that sees the zodiacal scheme in Geminus as calendrical:

Rehm, ‘Parapegma’, RE ; Rehm, 1941; van der Waerden, 1984; Bowen and

Goldstein, 1988; and Hannah, 2001b, p. 81 f. Hannah, 2002, is (I think

sensibly) more cautious.

16 Meaning “[For the latitude where the longest day is] 14 ½ hours”.

D. Lehoux / Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci.

there is a change in the weather.

3 rd . 13 ½ hours: the star on the tail of Leo rises. 15

hours: the star called Capella rises in the

evening. According to the Egyptians the

Etesian winds stop. According to Eudoxus

variable winds. According to Caesar wind; rain;

thunder. According to Hipparchus the east

wind blows.

4 th . 15 hours: the rearmost star of Eridanus sets.

According to Callippus it is stormy and the

Etesian winds stop.

5 th . 13 ½ hours: Spica disappears. 15 ½ hours: the

bright star in Lyra sets in the morning.

Acco rd ing to Metrodorus bad air. According

to Conon the Etesian winds finish.

6 th . 15 ½ hours: the bright star in the southern

claw (of Scorpio) disappears. According to the

Egyptians mist and burning heat, or rain, or

thunder. According to Eudoxus wind; thunder;

bad air. According to Hipparchus wind; south

wind.

7 th . According to Metrodorus bad air. According to

Callippus, Euctemon, and Philippus bad air

and unsettled air. According to Eudoxus rain;

thunder; variable winds.

II . Two sorts of observational claim

Sextus Empiricus, in his Adversos mathematicos, begins his attack on

the astrologers by bracketing off a particular group of

practitioners in order to exclude them from his Sceptical assault.

These practitioners are those who observe the fixed stars in order

to predict the weather (the astrometeorologists). Sextus tells us

that they are excluded from his criticism by virtue of their sound

methodology: Where the (horoscopic) astrologers that he will be

taking to task all base their work in hypothetical (and therefore

uncertain) accounts of stellar causation , the astrometeorologists

distinguish themselves by working strictly from observation . As

Sextus puts it:

Here the user, knowing the date, looks up the corresponding

astrometeorological situation. On the face of it, this seems simple

enough, but how are the associations between the stellar phases

and the weather made?

It now lies before us to inquire concerning

astrology, or the mathematical art, [by which I do]

not mean the complete practice of arithmetic and

geometry taken together ... nor the predictive

ability of the followers of Eudoxus, Hipparchus,

and other such men, which is also called

‘astronomy,’ for this is the observation of phenomena, as

in agriculture and navigation, from which it is

possible to foretell droughts and downpours,

plagues and earthquakes, and other such

atmospheric changes... (Adv. math. , V.1-2, italics

mine.)

Since the correlations drawn by the astrometeorologist between

stellar phases (the annual risings and settings of the fixed stars)

and weather are observational , rather than theoretical, Sextus—

known as Empiricus, after all—has no objection to them.

And Sextus is not the only source to make a claim for the

observational foundation of astrometeorology. We find a strong

observation claim as well in Geminus:

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